Monday, August 25, 2008

College Football: Against the Spread: Week One

As a test to see just how well I can predict football games, I'm going to be tracking the AP Top 25 against the spread. All spreads are the spreads, found here.

1: Georgia: vs. Georgia Southern, -33. Take Georgia, they're going to score at least 50.

2: Ohio State: vs. Youngstown State, -34. Ohio State, they have such a soft schedule outside of one game.

3: USC: @ Virginia, -19.5, 45.5 ov, Virginia isn't a complete slouch, but they're a different team than they were last season, take USC, and take the Over.

4: Oklahoma: vs. Chattanooga, -48, I don't think Oklahoma's offense is quite that explosive, look for something in the 42-3 range, and take Chattanooga.

5: Florida: vs. Hawaii, -35, 71 ov, Florida beats the spread, but they don't reach the over. Don't be fooled by the gaudy numbers, Hawaii was a mediocre team last season, and got a lot worse this season.

6: Missouri: vs. No. 20 Illinois, -8.5, 59.5 ov, This is going to be a shootout. I think Missouri will cover, and the two will reach the over. Game of the Week.

7: LSU: vs. Appalaichian State, -24, LSU will cover, Les Miles might be a douchbag, and a mediocre gameday coach, but he will not fall into the same trap Llyod Carr did last season.

8: West Virginia: vs. Villanova, -35.5, Take West Virginia in a blowout.

9: Clemson: vs. No. 24 Alabama, -5.5, 48.5 ov, Neither team is as good as their rankings, but Clemson will win by a TD, and the teams will take the over.

10: Auburn: vs. Lousiana-Monroe, -26.5, 48 ov, Take Auburn and the Under.

11: Texas: vs. Florida Atlantic, -24, 67 ov, Texas will win, but will not cover, take the under.

12: Texas Tech: vs. Eastern Washington, -35.5, Texas Tech will Cover, possibly by twice the spread.

13: Wisconsin: vs. Akron, -26.5, 53 ov, Take Wisconsin and the Over.

14: Kansas: vs. FIU, -36, 57.5 ov, Take Kansas and the under, but only because FIU is that god awful.

15: ASU: vs. Northern Arizona, -31.5, I don't think ASU's got all the kinks out of their system, Northern Arizona will lose, but cover.

16: BYU: vs. Northern Iowa, -21.5, BYU will look to make a statement early, and will cover easily.

17: Virginia Tech: @ East Carolina, couldn't find a line for this one, but VT will win by between 7-14 points.

18: Tennessee: @ UCLA, -7.5, 47.5 ov, Tennessee has been terrible when visiting the West Coast, UCLA will cover, take the under.

19: South Florida: vs. Tennessee-Martin, -39.5, South Florida will fail to cover.

21: Oregon: vs. Washington, -13.5, Washington will cover, given Oregon's current uncertainty at QB.

22: Penn State: vs. Coastal Carolina, -39.5, Penn State will cover.

23: Wake Forest: @ Baylor, -12, 50.5 ov, Wake Forest will cover, take the under.

25: Pitt: vs. Bowling Green, -12.5, 56.5 ov, Bowling Green is an explosive offense, Bowling Green covers, take the over.

Oregon State: @ Stanford, -3, 46 ov, OSU covers, take the under.

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