Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts

Monday, February 2, 2009

Super Bowl... *sigh*


I hate the Steelers. Let's just get that out of the way now. We won't get into the reasons for that, but it's just the way it is. As such, I really hated the outcome of Super Bowl XLIII.

I'm no Cardinals fan either, but I can root for Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin. I desperately wanted the Steelers to lose, and I guess, by extension, the Cardinals to win. The Cardinals defense had done a pretty good job up until the final drive by the Steelers, so I had allowed myself to think that the phenomenal catch and run by Fitzgerald might have been enough to put those "don-ton yinsers" in their place. Alas, it was not to be. The defense sat in zone coverage and allowed the Steelers to cut a path down the field, leading to the Santonio Holmes TD. Then the Cardinals took the field again, and did a good job of working down the field, up until Kurt Warner's fumble. I was pissed, and took out my frustration on Guitar Hero III.

Both teams played fairly well, though the clusterfuck of penalties was a little disconcerting. There was a marked difference between the Cardinals of the first half, and the Cards of the second half. One thing that really irked me was James Harrison's punching a down Cardinals player in the back of the head. That got shelved right next to Joey Porter's blasting a crippled Todd Heap on the stack of things that make me hate the Steelers. There's a line between being a hard nosed, tough player, and being a dirty player. Harrison crossed that line. I've seen too many Steelers cross that line.

But look on the bright side. Everyone is undefeated today...

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Fixing College Football: The Apartheid of the Mid Majors


Teams in Mid Major conferences have no realistic chance at winning the national title. Their only real hope is to be the top team in the mid majors for an extended stretch, then pray that a BCS conference decides to expand. Even then, there are limited opportunities, and the last time this occurred was when the Big East expanded in 2005. Three teams have moved up from the mid majors to be able to contend in the last 4 years. This is an unacceptable situation.

The other side of the coin, however, is that often times when a highly touted mid major team rips through their schedule and win a berth in a decent bowl game, they find themselves outclassed by BCS conference teams that placed 2 or 3 slots below them in the standings of their conference. It's a fact that the inability to be competitive has caused the Mid Majors to stagnate, creating a disparity that cannot be easily repaired. The Mid Majors are easier conferences, and one of my key tenants is the standardization of schedules.

The question becomes, how can I reconcile the disparity in scheduling with the unfair policy of locking the mid majors schools out. To that, I look at football, of a sort. The English Premier League utilizes a system of promotion and relegation to ensure that the top conferences always have the top teams. This is the solution. The champion of the Mid Major conference will be promoted to the BCS conference, and the last place team of the BCS conference will be demoted to the mid major conference. This way, any school is no more than a year away from being eligible for a national title.

Each BCS conference will be wedded to a Mid Major conference, those links will be unveiled as I unveil the new mid major conference configurations.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Fixing College Football: The Pac 10

For those of you who have been following my grand scheme, you know that the Pac 10 is, in my opinion, the model for conference configuration. A true round robin every season and every team has a hated rival.

The University of Southern California
The University of California (Los Angeles)
The University of California
Stanford University
The University of Oregon
Oregon State University
The University of Washington
Washington State University
The University of Arizona
Arizona State University

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Fixing College Football: The Big Ten


Now we visit up north. It's time to realign the Big Ten conference. We've already sent Penn State to the Big East, and the Big Ten pretty much shakes itself out once the Nittany Lions are out of the mix.

Ohio State University
The University of Michigan
Michigan State University
The University of Iowa
The University of Minnesota
The University of Wisconsin
Northwestern University
The University of Illinois
The University of Indiana
Purdue University

Good rivalries, now we just need them to play good football.

Heisman Thoughts

The greatest individual trophy in sports, the Heisman Memorial Trophy, will be awarded in a little less than two days. The three finalists are already in New York. Sam Bradford, the quarterback for Oklahoma, is my pick to take home the stiff arm. He's competing against last year's winner, Tim Tebow of Florida, and the popular Colt McCoy of Texas.

One of the things that makes the Heisman so interesting is that the ballot simply instructs the voter to select the "most outstanding player." Some voters take that to mean the most valuable, to some it means the best performance, and to some it means the best player on the best team. Because of this, people can make an argument for any of the finalists.

I personally believe that Sam Bradford has a much stronger case than either Tebow or McCoy, given that Bradford is the best player on the number one ranked team at the time of voting. Bradford also enjoys a significant statistical advantage over the other QBs. Bradford has more yards from scrimmage, more TDs, and a higher passer rating than either of his opponents. McCoy has a higher completion percentage, and Tebow has fewer turnovers, but the overall statistics clearly give Bradford the edge. Bradford had the best performance, while playing on the #1 team. Seems like a no brainer to me.

But as always, there is dissent in the mainstream media. Here are a few examples.

Chris Low, SEC blogger for ESPN.com, puts forth this article. He stumps for Tebow based on the argument that Tebow faced much tougher defenses. This might be true, however, he makes several mistakes. First off, he makes the mistake of using raw defensive rankings. This is a problem because it gets you into a chicken/egg argument very quickly as to why scores are so low in the SEC. Do the offenses struggle because of powerhouse defenses, or are the defenses being inflated by offenses the likes of Auburn and Tennessee? Just as QBs like McCoy or Bradford might make a defense look silly, so to do Jonathon Crompton and Kodi Burns make even the most pathetic defenses look like the 1985 Bears. The other mistake he make was claiming that Arkansas was the worst defense Tebow's faced this season. I guess he thought the game against the Citadel was just a scrimmage. That's OK, he wasn't the only one...

In defense of McCoy, Jeff Martin of the Kansas City Star claims that, "Twisted Logic will rob McCoy of the Heisman!" I find this piece hilarious, because the only twisted logic in the article is his case for McCoy. He starts out by dismissing Tebow with this quote,

Tebow is a great college football player. Every television talking head said as much over the weekend. But how can you give him the Heisman a year ago in large part for his statistical achievements — the first I-A player to finish with more than 20 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns in a season — and then turn around a year later and twist the criteria? Now it's about who is most valuable to his team?

So we're going by performance, rather than value to team. That's OK, I can dig it. But then it's down to Bradford vs. McCoy, and Mr. Martin goes all M. Night Shyamalan on us, and brings out the twist!

McCoy and the Longhorns took the Red River Rivalry, 45-35, even though Bradford had the far loftier statistics, not to mention the superior offensive supporting cast.
Maybe this is being too simplistic, but McCoy did more with less all season long, which is why he was No. 1 on my ballot and Bradford was No. 2.

OK... So he's going one of two ways here. Either he's claiming that McCoy deserves it over Bradford because he won the head to head matchup of the teams, or he's completely reversing tack on his argument against Tebow, simply to justify McCoy winning. In the event of the former, it shows a tragic lack of understanding of the nature of the QB position and the sport in general. If it's the latter, then he's a hypocrite who laughably accuses hypocrisy to be the reason why what he believes is right might not occur. Either way, I would expect more out of a major city newspaper sports journalist.

All rhetoric aside, we'll find out which argument was the most persuasive at the Heisman ceremony on Saturday.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Argh

Goddammit. Oregon State dropped the first Civil War game in Corvallis since 1996, and it happened to be when the Rose Bowl was on the line. My frustration knows no bounds right now. So many things went wrong.

Sean Canfield should have been starting. He's a better QB than Lyle Moevao, pure and simple. While Moevao had decent raw stats, he threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. Niether of which were great plays by the defense, merely terrible throws by the QB. Moevao's throws were off all night. The recievers were trying their best to make adjustments, but less than a quarter of the passes were in the right spot. Moevao walked into a couple sacks, and constantly missed the open checkdowns.

Without Jacquizz Rodgers, the offense panicked, and went back to that detestable shotgun set. This took the run completely out of the picture, leading to the 60 passing plays, against the 13 runs by running backs. The play calling got worse in the red zone, two red zone opportunities were squandered in the first half when the offense got too cute, and did things like call no back formations and try the fly sweep twice in a row. This caused OSU to come away with 3 points when they should have had 14.

The fly sweep is a fine play. It's the foundation of OSU's offense, however, it is not a red zone play. The whole idea is to put the ball into the hands of Rodgers, Stroughter, or Johnson, have them beat the defense to the corner, and outrun people. OSU made several uncharacteristic mistakes using this play. They ran it with multiple players split wide, and they ran it in the Red Zone. Both these situations create the same flaw. It puts defenders closer to the sideline than the ball carrier. It's one thing to try a play against the grain to try and catch defenders off guard, it's another entirely to do it repeatedly.

Outside of the Red Zone, they didn't use the fly sweep motion enough. Because of the threat of the play, and the visible buildup of the motion, it warps defenses outside of the red zone. Even if the motion man doesn't get the ball, it opens up the pass downfield, and opens up runs up the middle. But OSU hardly ran the motion.

Ryan McCant's didn't get very many carries, and on his best run of the night, an 11 yard run in the 4th quarter, he fumbled. McCant's didn't see too many carries the whole season, because Jacquizz has been a beast. I believe in using a star back heavily, but I also think you need to work the backups into it, for familiarity's sake. It helps cut down on fumbles, and breeds confidence.

On defense, they gave up almost 700 yards. There's a lot of problems.

Problem number one. TACKLING. The ugly beast that rose it's head against Stanford and Penn State showed up again. Too many plays were created by missed tackles. The linebackers were just awful, constantly out of position, and arm tackling too often. The Corners missed several tackles too.

The defensive ends broke containment on almost every play. Especially in a misdirection offense like Oregon's, the key to playing DE against that offense is to never let a player involved in a handoff to get outside of you. especially if you think the play is going away from you. The QB hands off to the running back and runs at you, make sure he doesn't have the ball before you start chasing the running back.

Schematically, Oregon runs about 12 different plays, which is increased based on run pass options, and read options. Oregon's shotgun offense has the same limitations as the offense OSU ran. Based on the alignment of the running back, there are some gaps that the running back can't get to off the first cut. The weakside B, C, and D gaps are out. This brings us back to containment. There are two ways to vary pressure on an offense, blitzes and stunts. OSU ran a lot of stunts, which work well against a conventional offense, however, a read option offense is succeptable to blitzes, but renders stunts useless. All a DE stunt does is automatically blow containment, and open up those gaps that were out before. One player can prevent the whole weakside from being used, which allows you to focus on the strongside. OSU failed to do this, and the same play blew them up, time and again.

The referees were par for the course for the Pac 10, which is to say, God Awful. The review official for the fumble returned for the touchdown in the 3rd quarter should be fired. There is no excuse for that kind of incompetence when you have time to look, rewind, and look again at a call. None of the refs on the field have any clue what pass interferance is. Combined with some terrible spots for the ball, and I have a renewed hatred for the officials of the Pac 10.

All in all, it was a poorly played game. However, I would like to take a moment to thank the Beavers for playing as well as they have thus far this season. No one expected it outside of Corvallis. Good job.

It's also worth noting that the Rose Bowl dream is not over for OSU. Because of the Ducks loss to Cal, if USC loses to UCLA, Oregon State has the tiebreaker in a three way tie too. So, GO BRUINS!

Monday, November 17, 2008

Brad Edwards is an Apologist for All the Wrong Things.

For those of you who don't know, Brad Edwards is a columnist for ESPN.com. He recently wrote an article on ESPN.com trying to justify allowing a team that did not win their conference to compete for the BCS title. He's essentially apologizing in advance for what would happen if Missouri wins the Big XII championship game. He claims that the third ranked team in the conference would be the best team in the nation. He attempts to back up his claim by painting a doomsday scenario where the top ranked teams lose out, and don't win their conferences.

Here's my stance on this. If the best teams lose out, then clearly, they weren't the best teams. This is a problem that will have been manufactured by the money grab known as the conference championship games. I am deeply opposed to conference championship games. They undermine the importance of conference play, and they screw up the national title picture. However, it is the bed the Big XII has made, and now they must lie in it.

The fact that he's arguing for the Big XII makes his case even shakier. The Big XII has already screwed up the BCS picture in this exact same manner twice. In 2001, the Big XII champion was Colorado, however, the Big XII sent Nebraska to the national title game. The result? 37-14 Miami. They didn't learn their lesson. In 2003, Kansas State was the Big XII champion, but the Big XII sent Oklahoma to the National Title Game. This time it was 21-14 LSU.

I believe the voters might have learned their lesson. Last season, Georgia was ranked second with only the conference championship games to go. Georgia was not playing, so they figured that their spot in the title game against Ohio State was assured. Far from it. Eventual SEC Champion LSU jumped from 7th to 2nd, and locked the #3 team in the SEC from attempting to play in the title game. The results were quite pleasing to the SEC. 38-24 LSU.

So to answer your question Brad, in case your doomsday scenario does play out, yes, Penn State-Florida would be just fine.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Fixing College Football: The Big XII

It's been a while, but as Bender once said... "I'M BACK, BABY!" Let's take a look at how we would realign the Big XII conference.

The University of Texas
Texas A&M
The University of Oklahoma
Oklahoma State University
The University of Kansas
Kansas State University
Texas Tech
The University of Colorado
The University of Missouri
The University of Nebraska

The first six were all classic rivals. Texas Tech, I'm hoping begins to form a rivalry with Missouri, and Colorado and Nebraska are both traditional Big XII powers that I would feel bad for excluding. Iowa State is more in Big Ten territory, so they're out. Baylor could be a rival with Texas Tech, but the idea of Missouri and TT shooting it out was just too appealing.

Monday, October 13, 2008

What Clemson needs to fix.

Clemson's the new hot topic, seeing as they just fired/resigned their head coach Tommy Bowden after a 3-3 start to a season that saw them ranked in the top ten in preseason polls. Many people have applauded this move, stating that with the kind of talent that Clemson has, his performance simply has not been good enough. Nine straight bowl eligible seasons and a 72-45 record in his time at Clemson.

My question is, what kind of talent do you really think Clemson has? Do people really think that Clemson has the kind of Talent to match up with major conference championship calibur teams?

Talent is really just a measure of potential. It does not always make a good player, but it does make a good draft pick. So recent draft picks is a good way of measuring what kind of talent a program has been working with in recent years.

Over the last four years, Clemson has had 13 players drafted. This puts them at Sixth in the ACC, behind Virginia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina State, Florida State, and Miami.

Let's look at some of the output of some of the perennial powerhouses. Oklahoma has had 24 players drafted in that same span. Texas has had 21. Michigan has had 19. Ohio State has had 23. USC has had 31. Florida has had 17. LSU has had 22.

What kind of teams have had a similar talent level over the last 4 years? Arkansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Oregon, Stanford, and Louisville have all had 13 players drafted over the same span. Together, those 6 teams, in 24 attempts, have 1 conference championship between them. They are also a combined 22-16 this season, which basically averages out to 4-3. Also, with the exception of Oregon, all of these teams have stumbled recently with coaching changes. These are the talent peers of Clemson. This is no longer the 1980s.

Tommy Bowden was not a coach who was going to take Clemson to the BCS promised land. But I don't really think that was a place Clemson is capable of going to. He's pretty much a face value coach, give him a mediocre team, and you get mediocre results. But he was consistent. And in college football right now, consistency equals money. Those eight bowl appearances netted the ACC over a million dollars in prize money. With Tommy, you knew what you were getting. Now, Clemson has opted to roll the dice.

I don't like the move. Coaching changes after a successful season tend to faceplant. I would not be surprised if Clemson falls apart completely the next few seasons. Especially if they hire some retread coach, which, after the dismissal of Bowden, might be all they can get, as the hot names, like Bronco Mendenhal and Will Muschamp will be able to take their pick of the vacancies. Clemson's best bet, assuming that they can't get one of those two, might be an unorthodox one.

Gus Malzahn, the offensive coordinator of Tulsa. Orchestrator of the number 1 offense in college football, averaging 603 yards and 53 points per game. The first step to set the table for him is the benching of Cullen Harper, a senior, in favor of the more talented and less experienced freshman Willie Korn. Get him some experience. Also, do whatever it takes to keep CJ Spiller on campus. Those two, along with receiver Jacoby Ford, will provide the initial nucleus of a new offense Malzahn can build. Clemson has already decided to scrap this season. Don't be surprised if they drop out of bowl contention entirely, which would have been unlikely with Bowden. All Clemson can do beyond that, is pray.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

What USC Needs to Fix.

PANIC! At least according to the media.

Mark Schlabach says that now other conference champions can afford to lose a game, because there's no way USC can leapfrog them.

Ted Miller says that even if the other conference champions lose two games, it guarantees nothing for the Trojans.

Dennis Dodd says that the loss is part of a disturbing trend.

Mike Ventre says that USC can forget about another national title.

These people are sensationalist idiots looking to attract readers through gloom and doom. One of the few respectable sports journalists in the world, Mark Bowden, readily admits that the sports media doesn't know a thing about sports. And it's true. It's amazing that the very people who vote in the AP poll don't know the twisted rules that they themselves cast their ballots by.

Unlike Ohio State, USC's problem is one of execution, not a systemic flaw in the very nature of their program. Undefeated seasons in a BCS conference are rare, because it's extremely difficult to go out and execute at a level needed to win each and every game. It's hard for USC, and it's hard for other teams too. Dodd said that it was part of a trend. No, it's part of the norm. In the last 36 years, USC has gone undefeated a whopping 1 time. Losing happens. It's not some disturbing trend that heralds the collapse of a team into the dark pits of mediocrity. Hell, LSU, last years champion, lost to not one, but two unranked teams. And this is assuming that when it's all said and done, Oregon State will still be unranked, which I honestly doubt.

That's important because it shows us exactly what USC needs to do to right the ship, and unlike Ohio State, they can do it this season. All they need to do is win. If USC wins out, it would take not one, but two BCS conference champions to go undefeated to bar them from the national title game. And it's simply because of the way the voters in the poll naturally cast their ballots. A team losses, and they drop. It doesn't matter who they lose to, that only governs how far you drop. At this point, there are still 18 undefeated BCS teams. They are spread amongst 5 conferences. That means at most 5 teams will go undefeated. If that happens, I will eat my hat. USC will probably drop to between 7 and 11 in the polls. Because this loss happened so early in the season, they'll have plenty of time to crawl back up the polls as the remaining undefeated teams kill each other off.

Remember, in 2006, USC lost to an unranked OSU team that had previously been blown out 42-14 on the road against a WAC team. They still managed to claw their way back up the polls to put them into a position to compete for the national championship. This is a very talented team, that can win any given game if they execute. They need to execute, they need to win. If they win out, they will more than likely be back in the title game. There's no need to panic. If they lose again though, then they're done.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Well, the Pac 10 just shot itself in the foot.

But MAN is it fun to be the one to pull the trigger! Oregon State has upset the number one ranked team in the nation, and suddenly restored hope to what looked to be a very looong season. The way that Riley pounded the running game out of the ace set seemed like he actually reads my blog.

But as I look back, I notice trends that begin to make me realize that my earlier concerns might have been ignorant in the face of the standard Oregon State modus operandi under Mike Riley. Since the beginning of Riley's second stint as head coach in 2003, Oregon State has been a collective 12-13 for the first 5 games of the season, 0-7 on the road in those games. The Beavers have then closed out a respectable 27-11 for the remainder of the season.

In the last two seasons in particular, this is evident. Both seasons began 2-3, and ended 10-4 and 9-4 respectively, with the Beavers winning a bowl game and finishing the season ranked. The strong finish in 06 was keyed by a win over then #3 USC. In 07, defeating #2 California started up OSU's push to the finish.

This season began 0-2, with both losses coming on the road. It remains to be seen if the upset of #1 USC will signal the start of a blazing run to the end of the season. I certainly hope so, and if it does, this loss will look a lot less damning on USC by the time the Bowls roll around.

The only problem this sort of system brings up is the fact that any seasonal ambitions are scuttled from the get go, and for a school like OSU, which doesn't usually have the luxury of a high preseason ranking, getting embarassed in an early road game on national TV also guts the opportunity for decent media coverage for most of the season.

But with next weeks game against Utah, and the eventual showdown with the Ducks at the end of the season, OSU has positioned itself nicely to begin to undo the damage of the slow start to it's image. Hopefully, the early upset means that the strong finish gets started early. If we could end the season 9-4 or 10-3, it'd do wonders for the program.

Monday, September 22, 2008

What Ohio State Needs to Fix


I am by no means a Buckeyes fan, however, some people have written them off as a mediocre team buffeted by a weak conference. This is not the case. The Buckeyes are still one of the most talented teams in the nation. Ohio State has sent 11 players to the NFL on the first day of the draft the last three years. That's as many as LSU (9) and Georgia (2) combined. Talent is not the issue. The issue is positional talent and coaching doctrine.

In terms of positional talent, if you take a look at the three premier losses in the last three years, against USC, LSU, and Florida, you'll notice several trends. Against USC, they gave up 174 rushing yards on 30 carries, 5 sacks, and 2 INTs. Against LSU, they gave up 177 yards rushing on 45 carries, 5 sacks, and 2 INTs. Against Florida they gave up 156 rushing yards on 43 carries, 5 sacks, and 1 INT. This tells us 2 things. They cannot protect their QB, and they cannot stop the run. This creates two problems. Inability to stop the run allows the opponent to set the tempo of the game, it opens up the play action pass. Being unable to protect the quarterback makes your offense one dimensional. Ohio State is already pretty one dimensional as it stands. This adds up to an offense that can't score, and a defense that can't get off the field. That's a recipe for disaster.

You can get a feel for the level of athletes that a program has by looking at the level of players it puts into the NFL. To see if a program can compete on a high level in college, you need to look at how many high draft picks it puts out. From 2000-2008, Ohio State put 17 players into the NFL via the top 2 rounds of the draft. That throws the notion that they simply "lack speed" out the window. Ohio State has sent up 4 WRs, 5 DBs, 2 LBs, 2 Cs, 2 DEs, 1 DT, and 1 K.

Noticeably absent are QB, RB, and OL. The lack of high level O-line talent makes the Ohio State program systemically vulnerable to elite pass rushers. Florida had Jarvis Moss and Derrick Harvey, both NFL first round picks. LSU had Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. USC had Everson Griffen and Kyle Moore. The lack of elite caliber QBs exacerbate this problem, as a mediocre QB tends to hold on to the ball longer.

Figuring out the problems with the run defense is a little more deceptive. Ohio State has had a proud tradition of linebackers, and that's been held up by the current team with Marcus Freeman and James Laurenitis. The defensive ends are also fairly recent, with Vernon Gholston on the teams that lost to Florida and LSU. The safeties aren't world beaters, but they're solid. the weakness has come at defensive tackle. The one defensive tackle drafted early for Ohio State was Ryan Pickett in 2001. Since then, they haven't had anyone special.

Solving the defensive problem will require Ohio State to get out of the mold of the cheap interchangeable defensive tackle. Most of their defensive linemen are in the 280-290 lb range. You can get away with it if you have some LBs who specialize against the run, a Jeremiah Trotter or David Harris style thumper. However, Ohio State has done a good job of recruiting the high end sideline to sideline LBs. They've had good success with those style of linebackers, and I see no reason to mess with those. It would be much easier to try and put an emphasis on bringing in some 300-315 lb DTs who can plug up gaps and stuff the run. The loss of pass rush would be negligible, due to the minimal amount of sacks that actually come from tackles in Ohio State's system.

On offense, the inability to protect the QB really stems from the type of tackles that Ohio State has started. Players like Kirk Barton and Alex Boone, while possessing prototypical size, tend to lack athleticism and have shorter arms than their height would indicate. This causes real problems with speed rushers. The problem can really only be fixed by picking up better offensive line prospects.

Both these problems could be worked out by adopting a more aggressive coaching style, but one thing Jim Tressel is known for is his inflexibility. He runs the exact same game plan on a short week against Ohio as he does on a six week break before playing LSU. Chipping with TEs and double teaming with OGs would help dealing with speedy DEs. High risk/reward run blitz packages would help to deal with the weak run defense. But that's not Tresselball. In the end, you end up with a high percentage winning coach, yet a very predictable team. They win the games you think they're going to win, and lose the games you think they're going to lose. Contrast this to Les Miles, who's the opposite end of the spectrum.

Because of these problems, Ohio State will be a second tier team for years to come until such time as Tressel changes his recruiting tactics. I don't expect him to change his coaching style, because it works for him, but changing the recruiting pattern is easily doable. Jim Tressel has built a program that is designed to beat the Big 10, and Michigan in particular, but will struggle against teams with different philosophies. It's really a measure of the priorities at Ohio State.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Thoughts on Week 3 of College Football

Forgot to post spread picks. I'm a bad blogger. I know.

Will the voters please cease shackling themselves to the nonsensical "poll rules", and keep Ohio State out of a third BCS game, as they clearly have little competition in the Big Ten? It was clear that Ohio State didn't belong on the same field as USC. The defensive line is woefully undersized, and gets bullied by a strong running game. The two QB just doesn't work, it never does, I don't know why people think it does.

Cal, you have embarassed the Pac 10. Arizona State, you too. Arizona, well, your whole state just sucks. The Pac 10 should have won every one of those games.

UCLA is a shattered shell of itself, so they get a pass. Wazzu's just so damn bad, that commenting on them makes me feel like I'm beating up on kids with Down Syndrome.

Oregon slept through the first half, and nearly paid for it.

Oregon State started slow, but turned things around. They might have stabilized their season. Riley got out the shotgun mentality and began to establish the run. However, opponents have begun to key in on the fly sweep. To reduce the fly sweep to background noise, Riley needs to move recievers to in motion every third play or so. Doing this will cause them to stop keying in on it, and can actually open up the passing game and conventional running game. Furthermore, Sammie Stroughter needs to be running more deep routes of 15 to 20 yards. Throwing those smoke screens aren't as effective as we'd hope. Also, the line needs to block a little bit.

Did Auburn really win a game 3-2? Or did they kick of baseball season early?

Missouri is making a strong case for the Big XII crown. That offense is the scariest in the conference.

Jake Locker must look at Mark Sanchez, and kick himself for picking Washington.

Did anyone see Texas Tech's flooded field? Raiders indeed...

Heisman Watch:

1. Mark Sanchez: Prime time exposure works wonders. Sports fans everywhere are in his debt for crushing USC.

2. Chase Daniels: Well, Nevada was a speed bump.

3. Knowshon Moreno: Need to step up. The game against South Carolina was not good enough.

4. Tim Tebow: Name recognition is keeping him alive until they hit the meat of their schedule.

5. Sam Bradford: Played well as of late. But Sophomore status will require a lot of people to screw up for him to win.

Silly Pats Fans...


Awww.... What's the league going to do without Tommy Fawkin' Brady? Suck it up boys. I'm an Eagles fan. These things happen. You better hope that Matt Cassell is a gamer.
Thanks to Kissing Suzy Kolber for pointing this shit out. They're downright clairvoyant...

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Thoughts on Week 2 of College Football

9-10 against the spread last week and 8-10 over/under.

It seemed sagging offenses were the norm. Ohio State, West Virginia, Alabama, and Florida all looked a little weak on O.

I've already said my piece on BYU/UW.

If Oregon State wants to win, they need to get out of the shotgun offense, open up the running game, and teach their LBs to tackle.

Georgia looked real good.

East Carolina looked good. Finally, a team that the Carolina's can be proud of. Given the remainder of their schedule, and BYU's poor performance against UW, I think ECU is the new front runner for the Mid Major BCS Buster.

Penn State looked real good.

Wake Forest's struggles with Ole Miss, VT's dismal performance against Furman, Virginia struggling with Richmond, NC State letting William and Mary hang around, Duke's loss to Northwestern, Miami's Loss to Florida, and Maryland's loss to Middle Tennessee State, have solidified the ACC as the joke conference of the year.

Without Chris Wells, Ohio State will likely get crushed by USC, sparing us another dismal showing in the title game!

Heisman Ranking:

1. Chase Daniel: Another Strong showing puts him as a good statistical leader on a front running team. He needs to keep it up.

2. Knowshon Moreno: Looked real good, with a freakish highlight against an underated Central Michigan team.

3. Mark Sanchez: There's only so much you can do to maintain momentum in a bye week.

4. Tim Tebow: Still hasn't really had a wow game, but survives and advances. Such is life in college football.

5. Josh Freeman: Looked very impressive. We'll see if he can keep it up through the meat of Kansas State's schedule.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Why Conference Championship Games Fail

A question posed in a comment on an earlier post regarded why I was realigning the conferences based on a 10 team setup with a round robin as opposed to a 12 team setup with a conference championship game. The reason why is that the ultimate goal of my conference setup is to send the best team on to the post season. The round robin method is proven to do that, while the championship game method has failed to do so on many occasions.

The first conference to switch to a championship game was the SEC in 1992. In 1994, sixth ranked Florida edged out third ranked Alabama for the championship. Alabama went on to the Citrus Bowl, where they defeated Ohio State 24-17, and finished the season ranked 5th. Florida went on to the Sugar Bowl, where they lost to Florida State 23-17, and finished the season ranked 7th. In 2001, 21st ranked LSU knocked off 2nd ranked Tennessee. In the bowls, LSU defeated Illinois by 13 points, while Tennessee obliterated Michigan by 28. LSU finished ranked 13th, Tennessee finished 6th. In 2005 the tables were turned as 13th ranked Georgia slipped past 3rd ranked LSU. Georgia went on to lose to West Virginia while LSU blasted Miami 40-3.

The next conference to adopt a conference championship game was the Big XII in 1996. That very year, unranked Texas upset 3rd ranked Nebraska. While Nebraska crushed Virginia Tech, Texas got run over by Penn State. Nebraska finished the season ranked sixth, while "champion" Texas finished 23rd. In 1998, 10th ranked Texas A&M upset 2nd ranked Kansas State in overtime. Both teams went on to lose their bowls, and finished ranked 10th and 11th, Kansas State on top. In 2001, 9th ranked Colorado upset 3rd ranked Texas. Colorado went on to be murdered by Oregon, while Texas beat Washington. Washington and Oregon were co champs of the Pac 10 that season. In 2003, Kansas State upset 1st ranked Oklahoma. While most people remember Oklahoma rolling over for LSU, few remember that Kansas State got crushed by Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. 2007 featured Oklahoma knocking off top ranked Missouri. Oklahoma proceeded to get embarrassed by West Virginia, while Missouri blew out Arkansas.

The most recent conference to jump on the band wagon was the ACC in the wake of their rape of the Big East. They got things started quick, in the inaugural game in 2005, where the 22nd ranked Seminoles of Florida State upset the 5th ranked Virginia Tech Hokies. FSU promptly lost to Penn State, while VT defeated Louisville. VT ended the season ranked 10th, FSU was still 22nd.

These are examples from every conference where an inferior team got hot for one game and walked off with the conference championship. Most of these cases ended with the "champion" badly embarrassing their conference, usually on national television. Imagine if the Big 10 had a better team in their conference, and still decided to send Ohio State to the slaughter in the last two BCS Title Games. That does not happen in the Pac 10, or even the Big 10. Almost always, their champion might not win, but they are the best team in the conference, without a doubt. In a playoff situation, not sending the best team would cost the conference millions, and look really bad too.

Why then, do the SEC, ACC, and Big XII, willfully risk such embarrassment? The answer is the almighty dollar. An extra game, particularly one that single handedly determines the champion of a major football conference, produces millions of dollars in income for the conferences. Merchandise, gate proceeds, television rights, it's all very lucrative. However, by limiting the competition from a ten team conference to a six team division, you increase the weight placed on each game. There's really only 5 games that matter in a 12 team conference, as opposed to 9 in a 10 team conference. Football, being a fairly unpredictable sport by nature, will wreak havoc on records due to this. One off game, one fluke play, and you're likely never to recover in a 12 team conference, even if you are the superior team in the long run. By maximizing the number of games that matter, in time, the cream will rise to the top. If you follow the example of the 12 team conferences, all you'll learn is that, in the short term, shit can float.

An Example of What's Wrong with the NCAA.

#15 BYU played unranked Washington Saturday. It was a thrilling game with back and forth scoring. Down 28-21 with 2 seconds left, Washington QB Jake Locker made a clutch scramble to score the TD that only left Washington down by one. Once he crossed the plane, he tossed the ball over his shoulder and lept with his teammates in joy. The referees assessed a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to be assessed on the game tying point after attempt. This turned a 19 yard field goal attempt into a 34 yarder. The kick was subsequently blocked, allowing BYU to escape with a victory.

I don't like excessive celebrations. They rankle me as the actions of primadonnas. They represent everything that is wrong with the game. However, this was not an excessive celebration. There were no cell phones, no sharpies, no dancing, and no planning. This was a kid and his teammates ecstatic about making the big play. Raw emotion and pure victory. It was everything that's right about football, and team sports in general. Without that emotion the game is lessened. It is everything for sports.

The referee who threw the flag was Larry Farina. Pac 10 coaches have the opportunity to "rest" a referee for a game, essentially blackballing them from the game. Mike Riley, head coach of Oregon State, and probably one of the nicest people you'll ever meet, has only used that authority once. He "rested" Farina from refing OSU in 2006. In 2007, he was not given the roster of referees to review before the game against Washington. He trotted onto the field, and found Larry Farina waiting for him. The ensuing game was one of the worst officiated games I have ever seen in my life. Three OSU players were ejected, and a blown fumble call that nearly cost OSU the game. Oregon State's athletic director, Bob DeCarolis, went on a rampage to get the officiating crew suspended.

The lack of oversight and standardization of the officiating of games is another problem. Pac 10 officials have been particularly bad, and Farina's been the worst of the bunch. The entire system needs to be overhauled, and Farina needs to be fired. "Rested permanently" if you'd like to use the NCAA's soft PC language. These games bring in millions of dollars and we're trusting them to part time workers? Hell no. You can throw the refs on the pile of things I'd fix with college football if I were king.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Fixing College Football: The Southeastern Conference

Here's where I'm probably gonna hit the most friction. Retooling the SEC. We've already pulled out Kentucky and South Carolina and stuck them in the Big East and the ACC, respectively.

The University of Alabama
Auburn University
The University of Florida
The University of Georgia
The University of Mississippi
Mississippi State University
Vanderbilt University
The University of Tennessee
Louisiana State University
Georgia Tech University

The first eight were easy, traditional, rivalries. However, LSU doesn't have a traditional rival, neither does Arkansas. I decided to pull Arkansas because they are the most decentralized geographically. I threw in Georgia Tech from the ACC to centralize the SEC more in the south east.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

College Football: Against the Spread: Week 2

I'm 12-11 against the spread and 7-5 on Over/Under.

1: USC: Bye Week

2: Georgia: vs. CMU, -24, 56 ov, Look for Central Michigan to cover, and take the over. Enjoy the Dan LeFevour show.

3: Ohio State: vs. Ohio, -34, 45 ov, Ohio State will cover, but take the over.

4: Oklahoma: vs. Cincinatti, -21.5, 53.5 ov, Oklahoma will cover, take the under.

5: Florida: vs. Miami, -21.5, 51.5 ov, Take Florida and the Over. Tempers will flare.

6: Missouri: vs. Southeast Missouri State, No spread.

7: LSU: vs. Troy, -24.5, LSU will cover in another cupcake game. Please Les, grow some fucking balls.

8: West Virginia: @ East Carolina, -7.5, 50 ov, Take West Virginia and the Under.

9: Auburn: Vs. Southern Miss, -17.5, 41.5 ov, Take Auburn and the Under.

10: Texas: @ UTEP, -28, 58 ov, Take Texas and the Over. UTEP got lit up by Buffallo, I don't think the oddsmakers caught this one yet.

11: Wisconsin: vs. Marshall, -20.5, 51 ov, Take Wisconsin and the Under.

12: Texas Tech: @ Nevada, -10.5, 64.5 ov, Take Texas Tech and the Over.

13: Alabama: vs Tulane, -30, 43.5 ov, This being Tulane's first game, they've been gunning for Alabama all offseason, Tulane covers, take the Over.

14: Kansas: vs. Louisiana Tech, -20.5, 52 ov, Take Kansas and the Under.

15: Arizona State: vs. Stanford, -14, 53.5 ov, Take ASU and the Under.

16: BYU: @ Washington, -10, 55 ov, take BYU and the Under.

17: South Florida: @ UCF, -14, 53 ov, Take USF and the under.

18: Oregon: vs. Utah State, -35.5, 50 ov, take Oregon and the Over.

19: Penn State: vs. OSU, -16.5, 46 ov, OSU will cover, take the over.

20: Wake Forest: vs. Ole Miss, -8, 47 ov, Wake Forest and the Under.

21: Fresno State: Bye

22: Utah: vs. UNLV, -22, 40.5 ov, take Utah and the over.

23: UCLA: Bye

24: Illinois: vs. Eastern Illinois, no spread

25: South Carolina: @ Vanderbilt, -10, Take South Carolina in their traditional fast start.